“Daybreak” Poll

The Los Angeles Times Daybreak Poll tracks approximately 3,000 voters through election day. It is a unique poll that asks those voters on a regular basis several questions, including the likelihood of casting a ballot, who they think will win, and who they intend to vote for. The poll began on July 4 and is being conducted in partnership with the University of Southern California. You can check out the survey’s methods and source data by clicking here.

Who Do You Think Will Win?

One of the strange things from the poll is the dichotomy between who participants thought would win and who they would vote for. Only 41% think Trump will win, while nearly 54% think Hilary will win.

That’s not the strange part, however. The strange part is that 48% said they will vote for Trump and only 43.2% will vote for Clinton. Could it be perhaps that Republicans this election cycle are all too aware of the corruption and fraud of the Clinton Machine, and are assuming the worst?

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Follow the News

It is instructive to look at the chart that maps the responses for the question, “Who would you vote for?” Trump and Clinton were in more or less a dead heat towards the end of July, after each candidate received a huge boost after their respective national conventions.

That parity was obliterated by a series of headline news stories. When Clinton was discovered to have pneumonia on September 12th, the revelation came with multiple disturbing live videos of the Democratic candidate falling over or having what seemed to be mini-seizures and physical twitches. Trump at that exact moment experienced a huge boost in the Daybreak Poll. 

The much maligned decades-old remarks Trump made about women caused a sizable drop in his numbers. This was short-lived and he skyrocketed in the polls since the October 28th announcement that the FBI would reopen a probe into the Clinton e-mail scandal.

Voter Turnout

At the end of the day, it is the voters who will decide the election. Although intended voters are in a dead heat within .1%, you can argue that from the chart that Trump is trending and has been trending, and finding tremendous support since August 14th. We have yet to see how the FBI seesaw fiasco will affect voter turnout and the election in general.

Will the re-re-closing of the reopening of the probe empower Trump voters to protest the injustice at the ballot box?

Or will it light a fire under Hillary’s supporters who many claim it was a plot to damage her and benefit the other party?